Lots of big news yesterday

It's been an eventful 36 hours in the world of technology and real estate. In case you missed it:

Google launched Latitude, a service that lets users identify their location, and that of their friends, on a mobile phone. We've seen location-aware apps before (from Loopt, Brightkite, Yahoo! and others), but this is of a different order of magnitude. Work in this area has lots of implications for real estate, but just think about the advertising possibilities alone -- targeting may be taken to an entirely new level.

The New York Times released and API that unlocks all the paper's stories going back to 1981. It's hard not to see the parallels to MLS. Marshall Kirkpatrick, writing on Read/WriteWeb, nails it (just switch "newspapers" for "MLSs"):

"It's a transformation moment towards interconnectedness and away from isolation. A quality API could throw the doors wide open to a future where "newspapers" are important again."

Trulia set up an MLS Advisory Board. They've been knocking on MLS doors for a while, but now they're putting the pedal to the metal. It makes me think there is something to this MLS thing.

In a move that should have big brokers everywhere speed-dialing their IT directors, Box.net, the online file storage/management company, announced enhancements to their platform aimed at the enterprise. I ask again, "whither transaction management?"

A big day. Onward!

-- Brian Boero

Hell breaks loose in the new listings war

I returned from my vacation last week to find my inbox and reader filled with talk about listing coverage, comprehensiveness and quality sparked by a somewhat ham-fisted PR gambit by Roost.

I had just written about this the week before. It's been a pet peeve of mine for a long time. The fact that many of the most celebrated and trafficked real estate sites offer consumers a woefully inadequate view of the market is problematic.

Offering 70% of the inventory is OK when you're selling, say, digital cameras; it is not OK when you're claiming, with full--throated cries of "transparency" and consumer love, to help people make the most important decision of their lives.

Real estate has always claimed a certain kind of exceptionalism. Homes are not airplane tickets. Realtors are not stock brokers. And not seeing the perfect home in the next neighborhood over carries more consequences than not getting that new pair of Crocs in the color you really wanted.

I know: IDX is not perfect. And offering a full picture of the market dictates following Redfin's lead by offering MLS listings, foreclosures (many of which are in the MLS as well), and FSBO's side-by-side. But online real estate can and should do better than the gossamer fiber of broker feeds holding together otherwise great sites like Trulia and Zillow.

At the risk of sounding like a pedantic buzz-kill, I must admit that I found it hard to get truly excited about Trulia's nicely executed iPhone app and smart commitment to mobile, when I know, sitting on my deck searching "all homes for sale" on my phone, that what I am actually getting is something different.

I am left feeling that this sort of innovation is akin to a restaurant that obsesses on the dishware -- the means of delivery -- but drops the ball on the food.

I am not picking on Trulia. I just wish they and others would circle back to and nail down some basic content requirements.

So I hope the debate continues. It's healthy - and necessary.

-- Brian Boero

For brokers, a fork in the road

Trulia announced the launch of an ad network today, a collection of sites on which real estate brokers and others interested in reaching home buyers can place targeted advertising. It's a first, and an overdue one at that.

Last week, John L. Scott announced that they have purchased a small technology company to accelerate its in-house technology development. The company has also steadfastly withheld its listings from syndication across the Web.

Kudos to both companies for aggressively seizing on two key trends -- in Trulia's case, the flight from print real estate advertising and, for JLS, a movement among brokers to gain greater control of their future, which is increasingly tied to the online opportunity.

Brokers have been feeling around in the dark when it comes to the web for some time now. But these two developments cast some light on the strategic options:

a.) Ride the SEO savvy, traffic, user experience and reach of an online partner like Trulia to extend your brand and engage consumers online at very low cost.

or

b.) Do what it takes to create these aptitudes internally, leveraging IDX, Web 2.0 apps, and the IT and development efficiencies now available to build your own site into a leading consumer destination in your market or markets.

The best choice? I can't say. What makes sense for your competitor may not make sense for you. But I can list some of the questions you may consider in getting to a conclusion. I'm missing some for sure: My point is to help you reach a decision that needs to be made.

In consideration of a syndication/online ad network strategy:

1. Does a potential syndication partner bring me an audience I am not already reaching?
2. Is my brand well served by the content, user experience and brand equity of the syndication partner?
3. Exactly what stands between me and the consumer on the syndication partner's site?
4. Is sending my listings or ad dollars to a Website supporting the growth of a potential competitor, or riding the coattails of an established media property?
5. Am I -- is my brand -- diminished by putting my inventory on other people's shelves?

In consideration of a destination strategy:

1. Do I, and the people that work for me, have the knowledge and skill required to support an effort to make our Website a top destination for home buyers and sellers in our market?
2. Am I committed to re-org my communications and marketing departments to move from executing or managing vendors who perform old tasks (e.g., Issuing press releases, supporting agents with print collateral) to new ones (e.g., blogging, video production, SEO).
3. Do I have, or can I find, technology staff and trusted vendors who can create an online experience that is competitive with the top online players?
4. Can I sell the vision internally to managers, agents, and staff?

Most brokers remain in a dangerous stasis, floating in suspension amid kinetic innovation. It's time to move. Look outward or inward, but do press forward.

-- Brian Boero

What will real estate search look like in 2010?

Real estate search has changed a lot in the past five years. Mapping, data overlays, better design and a freer hand with listings themselves have brought us some great models.

But search has nonetheless become cocooned in the soft fibers of conventional wisdom at this point: Properties should be displayed in a list, with thumbnails, next to a map mashup; "save this search', while confusing, should always be among the user's options; school and neighborhood data should hang off the listing detail page.

Trulia, Estately, Roost and others have raised the current paradigm to amazing heights. Joel at FOREM's list of top search sites pretty much nails it.

What's next, though? That's the interesting -- and important -- question. Real estate search will surely look much different two years from now. Application and platform innovations are proceeding at a faster pace now than they were in 2003, when Web 2.0 first hit real estate.

Here are three things I think give us a clue:

#1: Searchme. This company launched this week in private beta. Take the time to watch the demo video. They are introducing something they call "visual search". If you own an iPhone or use iTunes, you'll recognize this (I imagine Apple's IP lawyers have too). I'm not convinced this will work as a general search paradigm, but imagine those pages you see are homes. The site information that appears at the bottom of the pages are listing details -- beds, baths, etc. A "listing" contains a cluster of data, but it's still fundamentally about a home, a visual pregnant with emotional triggers. Forget the blurry thumbnails in the list of search results to which we've become accustomed: show the homes, front and center, as the search result. Much better.

#2: Everyscape. I came across this site a few months ago when they launched their street-level view of Aspen, CO. They have since expanded to a number of markets. It's something like Google Street View dialed up to 11. You can walk down the street online. Do the neighbors keep up their front yards? What's in that strip mall down the way? This is now discernible from your computer. This, I believe, will supplant the mashups and aerial views that are tied to most real estate searches today. It will also send yet another shock wave through the Realtor value proposition. The role of high-priced chauffeur was already waning. This will kill it.

#3. Urbanmapping. One problem with the community or market information that's often integrated into real estate search displays (usually in the form of tabs or links off the property detail page) is that the level of analysis is all wrong. In most cases, the data are presented at the ZIP code level, which often renders them meaningless. My ZIP code in Oakland, for example, includes high-end enclaves and streets I would not walk after dark. What users need is neighborhood level, even block level, information. Urbanmapping maintains a database of over 20,000 neighborhoods across the country and provides contextual information for all of them.

So ... pulling this all together, the real estate search experience of 2010 might go something like this:

I, the user, enter: "Three bedroom Redwood Heights Oakland" into an online search site or real estate brokerage site.

My results are are full size photos of homes I can flip through and onto which are layered key data points.

I click on a link on one of these homes that says "walk down the street". I do just that, noticing that while the homes around this listing are well-kept, the duplex at the end of the block looks like it's inhabited, Animal House-style, by kids from a nearby college. I don't like that.

So I click on another link, "Check out the neighborhood". It gives me demographics, market trends, comps, and amenities for the small, somewhat serpentine piece of Oakland that is this neighborhood. I get the data, but also, because the semantic Web and data portability movements have born fruit, can show me something about the people behind the data, and how they are connected. In short, I get a view into something akin to a graph of the community.

I don't buy a house here, but I've made an informed decision.

Of course, there are lots of concerns and questions here. Or maybe you buy none of this and see search headed in a different direction. My point is that you can count on the search experience changing rapidly and significantly over the next two years. It will give consumers more power. It will further dissolve the traditional Realtor value proposition. And it's going to happen whether you're on board or not.

So get on board. Think a few steps ahead. Forget about replacing your crappy IDX solution with something slightly less crappy. Hike up to where the air is thin, take in the view, and then find someone who can help you make it real when you come down from the mountaintop.

Anyway, I've just show you some of the things I see on the horizon. I am interested to hear what you see.

-- Brian Boero

The customer has left the building

Last month, the Financial Times reported that Google's search numbers coming from the iPhone were so high the company's engineers thought the data were bogus.

Further on in the article the company's head of mobile operations asserts that "the number of mobile searches will overtake fixed internet searches 'within the next several years'.

I've spent the better part of the past five years making the case that real estate brokers and agents need to ditch the office and its menagerie of paper based, profit eating animals like the copy machine, fax machine, and file cabinet. Adoption has been slow.

But consumers are moving rapidly to relocate the real estate experience away from the desk. And so far, neither the real estate brokerage community or the online real estate industry seem to be taking it all that seriously. Perhaps it's denial. Brokers just getting used to the fact that they need to offer tons of free data and information on their company Websites with no strings attached must grapple with how to serve it up to go. Online media companies challenged to monetize destination websites must now figure out how to monetize a mobile platform.

That's rough, but the customer has left the building. It's time to hit the road with her. There's no choice: She's going with or without you.

Here's an example: If my local brokerage company doesn't offer me an IDX app for my iPhone I'll simply subscribe to a search on Trulia via RSS and view listings within the absolutely amazing experience that the mobile version of Google Reader delivers. That'll be great for me, but tragic for my brokerage and something of a half-win for Trulia, both of which will have conceded an important brand touch point.

Consumers can easily get sports scores and weather on their mobile phones. Where are the homes?

There are some bright spots. Realtor.com launched a Windows Mobile app last year. SmarterAgent, a great little company that survived the online real estate dark age of 2001-2004 just closed a round of financing and is gaining traction for its mobile home search offerings. TextBound, a new venture backed company offering SMS apps to Realtors, launched last week. Zillow has offered Zestimates via SMS for nearly a year and a half. The New York Times and a few other newspapers offer mobile versions of their real estate sections. U.K. based Properazzi unveiled mobile property alerts late last year.

But these are largely small gauge or isolated efforts amid a sea change in consumer behavior. Here are some things I'd like to see soon:

1. A major IDX vendor release a suite of mobile IDX apps for all major platforms (Windows Mobile, Blackberry, Android, etc.)
2. True mobile versions of Zillow, Trulia, Frontdoor and Roost
3. A bunch of real estate iPhone apps unleashed shortly after Apple opens up its platform later this month
4. A real estate website vendor roll out a brokerage web platform optimized for mobile use
5. A real estate specific version of the Yahoo! onePlace service announced today
6. The NAR to redirect every dime it is planning to indulge in the Gateway delusion toward development of mobile applications for practitioners.

Listings are nearly everywhere. The major search sites are reaching parity. IDX is widely adopted. The winners in real estate search will win on experience and service. The small screen will be a key battlefield. Those who ignore the writing on the wall will be pretty lonely back at the office.

-- Brian Boero

Online real estate's Winter of Uncertainty

"So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark--the place where the wave finally broke and rolled back."

 

That's Hunter S. Thompson writing about the apotheosis and retreat of the 1960's counterculture from within the decidedly un-sunny season called 1971.

 

I've thought of this passage (and, yes, trivialized it) lately in trying to figure out where the story of Web 2.0 in real estate is headed.

 

I get these questions all the time:

 

"What's interesting in the category right now?"

"What do you think of Zillow?"

"What's the killer online real estate app?"

"What do you think of Trulia?"

 

And honestly, my answers have been a little thin lately, my tone a little wistful. Things seem to have stalled since the orgiastic real estate Web 2.0 love-in at Inman last Summer, where I, along with most everyone else, was in the drum circle banging out:

 

wiki-wiki-wiki-UGC-UGC-blog-blog-blog ...

 

Today online real estate is in a Winter of Uncertainty. Zillow has not, and likely will not, significantly alter the real estate experience. The company seems somewhat directionless. Trulia feels less compelling now that so many others have joined the listings party. Few brokers have embraced the "conversation" and become "transparent". Most agents resist new marketing tactics because "they take too much time."

 

There have been positive developments or course. FrontDoor launched (disclosure: they are a 1000watt Consulting client) and is developing a compelling real estate media experience. And the assembly of agents who use Web 2.0 tools to transform their business continues to grow, slowly.

 

But the overall arc of the story bends towards slow change, not rapid transformation.

 

Where does this leave us? Not in a bad place necessarily. The drum beat  hasn't become a dirge. We just need to recalibrate expectations. The Old Way won't crumble overnight, no matter how many beers we have at Bloggers Connect. I think we're going to see more plays like Roost, which did not aim to reinvent the entire online real estate experience, but rather took one piece of it - IDX search - and improved upon it. Or SquidZipper, which gives agents a neat little platform for channeling their local expertise without throwing ten other features at them.

 

There are more of these companies coming. We're working with some of them. Think about it: has anyone really nailed online neighborhood information? Or agent ratings? Someone will. You can count on it. But it's going to take time.

 

There will be no online real estate revolution. No tipping point. No tidal wave of change. Just a slow rising tide that swells almost imperceptibly, carrying upon it those who seek, in time, the higher ground.

 

-- Brian Boero

Partial vision

If a listing is fed to an FTP folder and no one sees it, does it exist?

The old line about the tree falling in the desert kept bounding around my head after a debate I had with a colleague earlier this week. The issue? Whether consumers notice - or care - that most home listings sites offer them only a partial view into any market.

I notice and care. And the number of people like me will grow. Why should we believe that the educated, tech savvy people who search for homes online will endure hopscotching between sites to get a complete picture of available inventory if they don't have to?

Let's say you're a fan of sci-fi. Would you find Amazon a compelling destination if the company offered only 60% of the titles in that genre? Or maybe you're a shoe horse. Would Zappos have nearly as much appeal if you weren't comfortable knowing that they give you a look at everything Kenneth Cole has to offer? There's a reason these sites are category leaders.

There was a time, those misty golden days of 2005, when a mashup and a nice UI made for a beguiling home search experience. A site like Trulia made Realtor.com and your locals broker's IDX feed look pretty antique, as indeed they were. But the emergence of slicker IDX products like Diverse Solutions and the innovative spin of Roost are changing the game at the very time real estate search and classified sites are proliferating. Even Realtor.com's got a refresh in beta.

The listings legerdemain can't be sustained. Consumers who bowled over auto dealers, travel agents and insurance brokers may never roll real estate, but it's fanciful to think they won't wise up to half-stocked shelves.

So, no, I was not too stoked about Zillow's announcement of a deal with NCI.

I think we're headed for a major shakeout in the listings space over the next 18 months. A site like dothomes may pull enough levers to play the traffic arbitrage game; horizontal classifieds sites like Oodle and craigslist may get some casual browsers; but they certainly won't emerge as category leaders. Consumers - at least those who are serious about finding a home - won't settle for partial vision. Would you?

Who wins?

Brokers who leverage the killer tool (IDX) sitting under their nose.
MLSs that wake up and vote for Lincoln.
Media companies that create a more broadly conceived online real estate experience
Internet companies that leverage IDX

Am I off base? If so, tell me. It's an important question.

-- Brian Boero

Roost unleashes a killer app ... IDX

Roost launched last week, and I love it. They didn't get sucked into the online real estate map and data fetishism I've bemoaned for some time. Rather, they deliver the goods - the listings - in the simplest, fastest way possible. It makes sense that an online shopping veteran like Alex Chang (who worked at Wal-Mart.com) would bring that sensibility to the property search category. It's about time.

And they also avoid the vexing lacuna at the heart of a vertical search player like Trulia - that not insignificant bunch of listings you'll likely never capture going door to door for broker feeds.

Roost rocks from a consumer standpoint. And in many ways, that's all that matters.

But, boy, is this a mind bender when looked at from an industry perspective! Consider, for example, that this latest greatest online real estate play is based on IDX - a system mandated by NAR eons ago and a kludgy staple of broker and agent websites for years. Or that small independents have been airlifted to a position of online power in many of Roost's launch markets by piggybacking on the bankroll and bravado of the venture backed startup.

And there is the irony of "John L. Scott" powering the Portland home search at the moment ... in the form of an agent team that, being independent contractors, has no need to abide by the home office's steadfast boycott of online listings aggregators (but this is just an IDX feed, right?).

The company's emergence also casts and uncomfortable light on some pretty big homegrown opportunities that have been largely missed. Why are MLSs just now waking up to the potential of public-facing sites? Why have so few brokers developed and effectively marketed their own user friendly IDX-powered listings sites?

At a corporate level, RE/MAX (powered by millions in TV ads) and Prudential (powered by millions sent to Yahoo!) have effectively leveraged IDX/VOW. And Realogy is headed in the right direction now too. But most brokers have moved too slowly and are now compelled to react, scrambling once more to evaluate a new idea they themselves should have hatched years ago.

Ok, enough recriminations. Roost does illuminate a few possibilities. For many, it may be joining their network. If the company can deliver traffic, taking advantage of the excellent user experience may make more sense than trying to cobble together the marketing and engineering resources needed to go it alone. In a sense, you can look at Roost as a cutting edge IDX and online marketing vendor.

For the more ambitious, it may mean going to school on them and breaking out some bold moves in 2008. Like slashing your print spend, building a truly elegant property search destination, and making it absolutely integral to your messaging. That may not pencil for most brokers, but there's something to be said for building your own asset.

Or perhaps the answer is to jump on onboard with Roost, while shaping up your own use of IDX. jetBlue, for example, delivers an excellent search experience on its own site and sends its inventory to Expedia.

Whatever happens or does not happen with Roost in the coming months, I welcome its disruptive force. Some will attack it. Some will buy into it. But all will be forced to consider its groundbreaking use of a tool that has been poorly applied for too long. And that will be a good thing.

-- Brian Boero

Clarity and confusion in online real estate

Two important stories hit Inman News yesterday: 

"Realogy plans national IDX web-search platform"

and

"Consumer access in the cards for NAR's real estate 'Gateway'"

Right here, in two stories posted within hours of each other, we see the conflicted state of online real estate, the poles of a mania not easily shaken. The Realogy story offers a model for how any brokerage company might think about leveraging their listings inventory. The second reflects the uncertainty many real estate practitioners still feel about how to navigate the waters of web 2.0.

Realogy, for its part, seems to be executing a carefully considered listings strategy that began with a partnership with Trulia early this year and has since been extended, to varying degrees, to Google, Yahoo! and Zillow. The company recognized that these sites offer compelling distribution channels for its listings. They have extended their reach considerably, while maintaining control of their data - something any brokerage should find attractive.

Today's announcement evidences an effort to leverage listings on their own brand sites as well, providing, in the words of CIO Craig Cuyar, "... a consistent and clear format, regardless of the listing source. Visitors to our brand Websites will be able to find all the local market information they are looking for faster and easier."

That may sound simple, but consider how jumbled most IDX functions sitting on broker sites right now truly are. This is a case study in getting back to basics using newly available technologies and media that many brokers would do well to emulate.

Such is the clarity that's emerging in online real estate right now. Now let's enter the mist of confusion that shrouds the elusive 'Gateway'.

The Inman News article noted a number of things that I found really puzzling:

• The idea that NAR would "restructure" its operating agreement with Move, Inc. to pursue an as-yet undefined venture.
• The Gateway is being considered as a means to ensure that certain data are not presented "by others" when every data point mentioned by its planners to date already is.
• Gary Thomas' quote that the Gateway "Is not a national MLS. It could evolve to that at some point. If you wanted to make it that way, it's up to you. It's not our intent -- but if that's something you want to do, go for it. I won't be up here doing that," illustrates just how fraught doing anything big and innovative in the MLS world can be.
• The statement (also from Thomas) that the Gateway, while  designed for practitioners loaded with for sale listings, "...would not allow the offer of compensation and cooperation." This seems to me to exclude the glue that could make the whole thing come together.

I know it's early. And there are people smarter than me working on this. But everything I have heard and read to date makes this project seem completely unhinged from any sort of strategy.

It reflects uncertainty, not clarity.

-- Brian Boero