Replaced

Nicole sat across the dinner table from us Friday night. She was not her usual positive self. Something happened. I decided to pry.

Replaced

A former actress, Nicole followed her true calling behind the camera. She did film. Music videos. And stills. The latter is, IMO, her best work of all.

Her son came twelve years ago. A daughter, sever years later. So she ditched LA and set up a photographer's studio here on the Central Coast.

Many of her stills adorn the walls of my home. Family portraits. My kids. Wife. Dogs. Taken at different times over the last ten years.

Nicole closed her studio on Friday. 

I assumed the economy took its toll. Nicole believes it goes deeper than that. "Everyone is a photographer today," she said. "They own digital cameras, enhance them with Photoshop (or picnik) and post them on Flickr. The value of a professional is no longer recognized I suppose."

That hit home. Big time. Especially as it relates to real estate.

Maestro

In 2004, I presented twenty-five very far-out predictions in a speech given for a large Realtor association. Slide nine read as follows: In the future you will no longer "own" any listings. A nice 3-D rendering of a product box was placed below the title. Across the top of the box the word "Maestro" was printed in bold. Underneath, it read: Orchestrate the entire process of selling your home - yourself.

Maestro included: 

• A turnkey blog site that featured your home
• A unique URL based on your home's address
• Map mashups with local data 
• A huge photo library and video player
• Direct syndication to every listings site on the planet

Maestro was real estate marketing in a metaphorical box. It provided the homeowner tools to recreate everything an agent does -- the many photos they should be taking, the compelling copy they should be writing and the web distribution they should be executing. 

The premise behind Maestro fed into the notion that in the future, by virtue of handling all of their own marketing, homeowners would retain ownership of their listing and simply hire agents to coordinate the sale -- i.e. show property, hash out paperwork, etc.

The audience booed. "There's more to selling a home than that," they barked. I knew that. Just like there's more to capturing a moment than saying cheese and properly framing your SureShot. The problem was, four years ago, when homes were selling like hotcakes, I wasn't sure the real estate consumer knew that.

And I'm not so sure that the consumer knows any better today.

Nostradavison

Several predictions from my presentation have now come to pass in real estate. And honestly, most of what I predicted seemed inevitable anyway.

A few, however, veered towards absurd.

Consider:

"Holographic Search" that allowed consumers to walk through a listing projected from a computer while sitting in their own kitchen.

"Caravan" was a device agents provided to their buyers. Think listing alerts meets GPS (I got this idea one evening waiting at a busy restaurant that handed out devices to patrons that lit up when your table was ready).

And of course Maestro.

I know they are borderline silly. They were offered to stimulate conversation. 

But then today my inbox received a press release sent from the U.K. announcing the launch of EstateCreate, a self-publishing website built to help consumers list their home and market it everywhere.

Holy shit.

Blinders

You'll think the product is simple. Regard it as a basic template website. With few bells and whistles. Much like most agent and broker websites are now. You may also shuck this as silly, much like some of my predictions, pay it no mind and think to yourself, well... even if a seller uses this, they'll still need to sign their listing over to an agent for full commission.

Blinders. 

Products like EstateCreate are trying to tap into the gaping holes left in the consumer mindset all the dog branding, bad websites, lack of transparency, poor search experiences, misguided marketing and lack of professionalism created and continues to create.

These are the gaping holes that today's real estate brands continue to avoid filling with better information. Higher standards. These are also the voids that real estate innovators are trying fill with solutions offered to real estate folks who continue to shun the idea of spending a few dollars a month for new technology.

If vendors can't sell their innovations to real estate professionals to help the consumer, my guess is they are going to start targeting the consumers themselves in greater numbers, tapping into their motivations to market, buy and sell their homes.  

Think TurboTax.

I hurt for Nicole. Being taken out by the economy is one thing. But being replaced because the marketplace misunderstands your value proposition is something entirely different. I'm showing Nicole how to change that and save her business. 

- Davison
Twitter: 1000wattmarc

Flikr, Skittles, Oodle and other cool developments

Photo sharing site Flikr now allows free users to upload video. As I noted in my "Seeing online real estate" post a couple weeks ago, Flikr is one of many services that will drive a much more visual online real estate experience in the near future. Brokers and online real estate sites of all kinds can easily display location-related images and video via the Flikr API.

Skittles - those chewy little candies - are now being marketed online in manner that is ultra-aggressive in its approach to social media. In fact the boundary between the brand and the "conversation" has been obliterated. Take a look and think about how this sort of thing might be applied to real estate marketing. Risky but not without rewards if executed properly, in my opinion. [via searchblog].

Walkscore, the site that measures the "walkability" of places, including homes, has cut two significant deals in the past couple weeks. Both Zillow and Estately have integrated the Walkscore API. Users on these sites can now view the proximity of listings to various amenities. Walkscore is a non-profit and there's a strong normative dimension to the service (We should use cars less) but it's a compelling (and free) addition to most real estate sites. 

Oodle, the classifieds site, is quietly kicking ass (Yes, I think you can kick ass quietly). They went live today as the classifieds engine on facebook. This follows upon a deal announced last week with AOL and a partnership with Wal-Mart.com inked last year. Their traffic is skyrocketing. And they have a strong real estate category. As the real estate listings aggregators approach parity in terms of volume, I wonder if they will find themselves challenged by a player like Oodle, which can develop content and traffic mass of an entirely different order.

Brokers: Jump on the neighborhood conversation now or surrender it to a media company. That's the message to be taken from the New York Times' announcement that it is entering into the neighborhood blog arena.

-- Brian Boero

"Seeing" the future of online real estate

A couple weeks ago, Frontdoor.com released its City Guides product [Disclosure: Frontdoor.com is a 1000watt Consulting client]. This is worth noting for several reasons. The user experience is first rate; the balance between content and design, data and vibe is pitch perfect; it supports the decision to live a life somewhere, not just to buy a house.

Their implementation of real estate-relevant APIs is well done. They've done a great job organizing Yelp reviews in each city, and display local events through eventful.

A slice of life

But it's their use of Flickr that got me thinking.

Flikr has been around for a long time. It has been plugged into thousands of websites and blogs. But the volume of geotagged photos it holds is now to a point where users can get a good visual sense for most any place. Frontdoor.com is taking advantage of this.

Check out Fairfield, CA

Or Athens, Georgia.

Or how about this: My wife is from Marshall, MN, a small town way out in corn country. Flikr brings it to life. This image illustrates why my wife now lives in California. 

You get a slice of life from each of these places, usually seen through the eyes of people who live there. I may know that Athens is a college town, but now I can actually see what a University of Georgia college student looks like these days. I can look at a map of Marshall mashed up with points of interest, but this gets me deeper. 

These photos pull you back from the tight focus on the home and touch on the blurry edges of decision making. And this, I think, presents really interesting possibilities for online real estate.

I am not certain what those possibilities will amount to. But the confluence of visual search, location awareness, Street View, online video, and massive stores of goetagged photos will get us closer to "virtual real estate" than we could have imagined even five years ago.

Something else to consider: There are hundreds of millions of photos sitting within MLS systems across the country. Most brokers have thousands of images they're not using. We focus so much on listings data; is there hidden value in the images?

-- Brian Boero

A couple of things, a few ideas and well wishes

As 2008 winds down, the news continues to distill fear, confusion, and sepulchral predictions for 2009. 

No doubt, there will be challenges in the coming year. But so what? When aren't there challenges? Since I've been working inside this industry (1998), I've seen it face off with plenty. For the most part, minus a few scars, a few bumps, grinds and stammers, it has remained intact.

Recap

The 1990's. The birth of online real estate moved the industry through the three stages of Schopenhauer's truth. First it ridiculed the Web. Mocked it as folly. Then it violently opposed it, buckling at times over fear of disintermediation. But then, self-evidence took hold. Acceptance.

In 1999, only 20% of real estate agents had websites. By early 2001 that number quadrupled.

The 21st century. First half of this decade. The stock market dove. Dot-coms tanked. This presented the industry with a golden opportunity -- and plenty of challenges -- as a real estate gold rush brought hundreds of thousands of new Realtor miners to its banks armed with pans, picks, cradles, hydraulic hoses and a lust for commission riches. Once again, real estate endured. The best invested in their businesses amid the craziness. Enhanced their brands. Made every effort to secure market share before the river would, inevitably, run dry.  

The 21st century. The latter half of this decade. Today. A weak economy. A confused consumer. The pending death of traditional marketing. Bloated brokerages engorged with needless operating expenses burdened by agent overpopulation and ridiculous splits. And no clue how to end them. Yikes!

Challenges galore.

The most nimble among you shift. Adapt. Discover, as this 39-year veteran has, that new opportunities are not hidden in some dimly-lit corner. They abound. Evidently clear. And ripe for the picking.

Real estate's greatest folly is the truth Schopenhauer spoke of. And the time it wastes dabbling in doubt and opposition to new ideas and processes. Some, such as David Schubb, the veteran agent above, proved how adapting early is the key to success during down times. He is busier and more successful than ever. Brokers like Benn and Lani Rosales proved that embracing Web 2.0 early could help build a new age brokerage and launch a successful new media enterprise. 

Older firms like Windermere uprooted themselves from the depths of tradition, bonsaied their online presence, and forged a nimble approach to tomorrow.

New companies like Sawbuck proved the viability of the virtual brokerage.

Some tips

I decided not to make a top 10 list of ideas or predictions because there are so many other writers who have beat me to the punch. Maybe I'll just publish a top 10 list of the best top 10 lists in real estate.

I also have no interest in making predictions this time around. I'd rather offer a few simple things I think will get help you find your way through next year. 

1. Sharpen your efforts to communicate your value. Dispense with the old cliches and try speaking with a real voice that tells truths. Discard slogans like "I deliver dreams" unless you can actually enter your clients' sleep and choreograph them each and every night. Seth Godin published this gem not too long ago. It's one of those posts that should be printed and taped to your computer. Question every bit of copy you write. "Now is the right time to buy" may be a truth but if you don't back it up with compelling reasons, it will fall on deaf ears. Back up what you say with a showcase of your knowledge. Denny does that one way here. Noah does it a completely different way here. Both work. How are you doing it?
2. Get critical on your website's ass. Ask yourself one question: "Does my website address the needs, the fears, the concerns of my users and correspond directly to what is happening in the marketplace?" We've seen too many sites with happy go lucky images that feel, look, and read in a way completely disconnected from the world outside. Why appear oblivious, insensitive and out of touch if you don't have too? Real estate is our economic ground zero. Do not be afraid to confront it. You can do truth without being negative. I continue to love how PMZ posts real market trends on their home page. Creating content and copy that resonates with the times, tells the truth and builds trust is the best move you can make in '09.
3. Perform a full vendor audit. Big brokers: You could be overspending hundreds of thousands of dollars needlessly with legacy vendors providing expensive and dated applications, content, data, advertising and services that can and should be negotiated down and/or replaced with newer, and better, options. Long-time vendor partners who have failed to lift the hood on their product, overhaul it and provide you a better price with better service are basically telling you they don't care much about their own business. How much could they care about yours? There are some great vendors out there. And APIs that can replace expensive components on your site. And tactics you can easily employ that can save you tens of thousands on needless SEO expenses and drive traffic and, dare I say - leads - to your firm. How deeply have you investigated these opportunities? 
4. Increase your use of social media. And more effectively manage your current efforts here. The agent posing with the dog of yesteryear who Twitters about their dog today is simply broadcasting the same shallow, meaningless message. There are some fabulous ways to use new media but this requires a re-education about how to broadcast your value and your brand. I continue to recommend what Tracey has done with video. Others outside the industry, such as Dan Hesse, CEO of Sprint, have used new media well. Be different. Get more creative. Talk with people rather than at them. Amid all the blogging and Twittering, how about offering one solid, comprehensive benefit to working with your firm that anchors your reason for being. Promoting your brand is one thing. Building it, expanding on its value, is quite another. Post less. Make every word you write worthy of quotation.

That's that for that.

As for 1000watt...

2009 is year two for our firm. In 2008 we worked with some smart folks who won Innovator Awards, released ground breaking products and altered real estate in positive ways. Some were start ups. Some were large, established media companies. Some were brokerage companies, MLSs or associations.

All of them have one thing in common: They are not standing still.

The reason I bring this up is too offer you an alternative to the depressing news and tunnel vision it can cause. These firms and others are aware of the times, but are surging forward nevertheless, committed to not shutting their lights, not closing their doors, not cowering in the corner and not giving up.

Our association with them fuels our optimism.

Recently, Brian and I participated in a "fireside chat" hosted by one of our clients. They regularly invite their agents and agents at competing firms to talk about things meaningful and inspirational. One participant questioned the notion of transparency and believed in guarding her knowledge so it would not be stolen by others in the business.

1000watt believes otherwise. Presenting your knowledge, wearing it out in the open is the way of the future. Today's consumer rely on it. The next generation of customers will demand it. We have been deeply committed to this ourselves. Give and you get. That works for us.

Currently, we are working on a new 1000watt site. We're sticking with a simple, clean look, more white space and a few more features. We are planning to redo our newsletter and putting the final touches on a few new content offerings we hope you will like.

We're getting lots of invitations to speak at association events and know that many of our readers have been recommending us. Thank you for that. Maybe I'm old fashioned but spending an extra hour after a speech answering questions as I did at Triple Play two weeks ago in Atlantic City, or enjoying a meal with attendees as I did at a conference in Bermuda a few months back offers me privileges Twitter and Facebook will never grant me. I am grateful for that.

On behalf of Brian and I, have a peaceful, special holiday time. We are both shutting down as of tomorrow and getting back to the things most precious in our lives: Our families and our well being.  

After New Years, we are off to Connect in NYC where 1000+ people from all walks of this industry gather in one place to learn, to give, to meet, and to partner with one another.

Finally, we have triggered a few vintage posts to auto publish while we're gone. They are some of our faves from the early days, when we had few readers.

We look forward to coming back refreshed, rekindled and ready to help you kick ass.

Marc Davison
Twitter: 1000wattmarc

On the brighter side: 2 things that suggest a path for online real estate innovation in '09

My post on online real estate innovation yesterday was pretty bleak.

That's still my sentiment, but here's a counterbalance:

I think the single biggest opportunity in online real estate in 2009 lies in improving our grasp on the real estate market at a hyper-local level.

Yes, we have Shiller's index. Yes, NAR cranks out its numbers. And companies like Altos and Terradatum have done a great job using listings on public search sites or MLS data to provide metrics like DOM and price medians.

But still, as the owner of a 3-bed, 3-bath home in the Redwood Heights neighborhood in Oakland, CA, I am pretty much in the dark about my local market. I get a lot of information, but the level of analysis is off. Or the UI is crappy. It's always something.

Two things that popped up yesterday point to ways we may be able to improve on that in 2009.

Realius [disclosure: 1000watt performed consulting work for the company in 2007] announced a partnership with ZipRealty to place its property price prediction application on the Zip site. The idea is simple: Users predict the price they think a listing will sell for. The predictions are collected and run through an algorithm. What comes out is an aggregate prediction based on the "wisdom of the crowd."

I have concerns about accuracy (among other things, including legal bugaboos) but Realius CEO Chuck Teller tells me that, looking back, the model performs very well, which suggests that the model may perform well looking forward.

Which is the point.

We'll see if the idea takes off. HomePredict also plays in this space and has been at it for a while.

Second, REI, the outdoor gear retailer, announced an iPhone application that provides snow reports at ski resorts across North America. In other words: Current conditions at numerous and variable hyper-local "markets." 

I'd love to see a mobile app that applies this to real estate market conditions. To do it right, the data need to be good, the level of analysis needs to be right, and the interface has to be super simple.

The REI app offers some good cues.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. I am off base? What am I missing? Where do you see opportunity heading in '09?

-- Brian Boero

It won't cost a dime and will blow your clients' minds

Your clients must be freaking out about their property values. I know I am.
So what are you, the real estate professional, doing about it?
I can tell you what the agent who sold me my residence is doing about it... nothing.

No phone calls. No analysis. Not even a postcard.

Oh, and by the way... nice job.

I know that postcards cost money. And besides, something this sensitive requires a more delicate touch than a postcard offers. You can make phone calls but I know that takes time. Besides, few folks answer them these days. And door knocking might not work for you.

So what can you do as an agent (or a brokerage company) -- that won't cost a dime, won't zap your time, but will blow clients' minds?

A new twist on an old killer app

Technology, at its best, saves time and money. Your email listing alert application is one of these technologies. Here is another way to use it to your advantage.

Brian has written plenty on email listing alerts. He's offered several ways to use them to drive engagement. But what if you used your listing alert app to help past clients stay on top of the market and keep track of what their homes are currently worth? It could be quite useful in that regard, and as an ongoing reminder that their agent is on the job.

Try this:

1. Sign up past clients to receive an alert (get their permission first).
2. Set the criteria based on the location, price, bedroom, bath and square footage of the home they currently own.
3. Submit.

Let your clients know they will periodically receive emails with lists of homes similar to theirs. Thus they can check the listings and compare homes on the market as a way to monitor increasing or decreasing value.

Yes, I know that for the most part values are falling. But for better or worse, this truth helps clients. For one thing, it levels their expectations by providing a better sense of the market. So in reality this is a simple market update -- like a stock ticker sent from you, their agent.

The long term play here is when and if they ever do consider listing their home, they might, as a result of this feature, possess a deeper appreciation of the market and prices.

You almost certainly have this application on your Website -- most likely as part of your IDX solution. Take a look at where it currently resides on your site. If it's not on the home page, clearly defined with a list of benefits to the consumer, including the one I suggest here, maybe now would be a good time to bring it forward.

It won't cost you a dime and it might just blow your clients' minds.

- Davison